‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People line up to buy fuel canisters for household consumption in an urban center.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As military actions on Iran disrupt energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the south. People are adopting solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A eatery in Chennai which has shut down due to a scarcity of LPG.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been triggered by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India brings in up to a vast majority of the crude it requires, leaving it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in worldwide shipments.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.

Francisco Sherman
Francisco Sherman

A passionate gamer and strategy expert with years of experience in competitive gaming and content creation.