From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”