🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.