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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.